Crowned at last

What will that future hold? “For the first time the consumer is boss, which is fascinatingly frightening, scary and terrifying, because everything we used to do, everything we used to know, will no longer work,” says Kevin Roberts, chief executive of Saatchi & Saatchi, part of Publicis. Shelly Lazarus, head of Ogilvy & Mather, part of WPP, is more sanguine. “Advertising is as vibrant as it has ever been. It's just that the way you define it is so much broader now, with new ways to reach people,” she explains. “In the past you would keep pounding the creative message out into the market place and look at reach frequency,” says Howard Draft, a veteran direct-marketing expert and chief executive of his eponymous New York agency, part of Interpublic. “Well, basically that is dead. What you have today is an informed consumer who is taking control of the way he learns and hears about products.”

Some changes in consumer behaviour that were already under way have been speeded up by the growing use of the internet. For example, consumers are spending more time with media of all kinds: currently about ten hours per person per day in America. According to Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS), a New York-based media merchant bank, this is likely to grow to 11 hours by 2008. James Rutherfurd, the bank's managing director, thinks this is due to a relatively new phenomenon he calls “media multi-tasking”: using different media at the same time. “This has enormous implications for advertisers and programmers,” he says. “It used to be that they were competing to get you to turn on the television. Now the TV may be on, but they are competing to keep your attention on the TV as opposed to the computer screen, the magazine or the iPod.”

Fujio Nishida, chief marketing officer of Sony's electronics division, points out that this forces advertisers to think very carefully not only about which media to use for the market they want to reach, but what people are likely to be doing when their ad appears. In Japan, he says, in the past you could be fairly sure that 90% of your potential targets would be watching TV at some point between 8pm and 10pm; but now only 70% may be watching and 60% will be using the internet—many doing both at the same time. Advertisers can take advantage of this by putting on TV ads specially designed to encourage consumers to go straight to a website, as Sony has done.

“Who actually controls distribution in this type of world?” asks Bill Gossman. “The individual does. That's where the ultimate consumer power comes from.” His company, Revenue Science, is developing new ways of “behavioural targeting”. This involves analysing online consumer behaviour and then delivering ads that are likely to be relevant to groups with common interests. Mr Gossman thinks that as the world becomes more digital, his techniques will increasingly be used by all kinds of electronic media.

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