DVRs forcing ad agencies into changing their message

Now that digital video recorders are letting TV viewers zip past commercials, many in the advertising community can't help but wonder what will become of the traditional 30-second advertisements that long have been the cornerstone of TV ad campaigns.

The digital video recorders, or DVRs, operate much like VCRs sans the tape, with hard drives that store broadcasts and cable TV programs. The ability to record programs and easily find them to watch later has significantly changed the viewing habits of DVR owners, who spend only 41 percent of their TV time watching live broadcasts, according to a report release in September by Forrester Research in Cambridge, Mass.

DVRs can be found in about 7 percent of U.S. households, but that number could jump to more than 10 percent in the next year, said Zain Raj, chief marketing officer for advertising agency Euro RSCG Worldwide in Chicago.

"When the penetration gets beyond 10 [percent] to 11 percent, that's when we'll start getting enough critical mass where there will be a change in behavior. That's when we'll stop watching TV in a traditional manner," he said.

Forrester Research estimates that 41 percent of U.S. households will have a DVR by 2009. Nine out of 10 DVR owners report that they always or usually skip commercials when they watch programs recorded on their DVR, according to the results of recent survey by MPG, a New York.-based media-planning and buying group affiliated with Euro RSCG.

Meanwhile, TiVo, the Alviso, Calif.-based DVR service provider that popularized DVRs, reports that its subscribers tend to skip about 75 percent of commercials in programs they have recorded.

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