TV's turning point

If it is not the end of broadcasting, then it is the end of broadcasting as we know it. The last time the television industry encountered significant change was 15 years ago with the launch of satellite operators to take on the earthbound establishment. This time, there is no single event on which to pin the origin of the revolution, more a series of butterflies - or ugly moths depending on your view - beating their wings in various parts of the industry.

The news of the past seven days alone is a good indicator of the tectonic shifting which will lead to the earthquake. The BBC's imminent and, as yet, unquantified job cuts look like reducing the corporation to a Lilliputian version of the grandiose Dyke vision. ITV is contemplating the possibility of a sizeable refund to its advertisers - unless the tempting prospect of Janet Street-Porter and Brian Harvey digging a dunny together can achieve a 60% audience share in the latest I'm a Celebrity ... shenanigans which have just started. Channel 4 announced it was no longer interested in merging with Five, but would like £100m in subsidy to keep it out of jail, and Freeview estimated that within two years it would be overtaking BSkyB in the number of boxes it supplies to homes.

Of course, there are reckless optimists who think that this is just a bit of a hangover after the 10 years of bonkers advertising growth - but these are few in number. Take the BBC downsizing operation. Why would the new director general, Mark Thompson, risk making such sweeping cuts ahead of Charter Renewal? The previous strategy of the corporation was to feed the goose not only so that it laid golden eggs but in order that it produced foie gras, too. The new regime is taking a high-risk gamble that if it puts its house back in order, then it will escape more punitive cuts at the hands of the government.

The current industry woes are mere detail against the broader ongoing issues of imminent analogue switch-off, BBC Charter renewal and the droning cultural lament about the general depravity and worthlessness of current screen fodder. We know from experience that crises are a cyclical part of the business, but the changes in technology, audience behaviour and the expectation society has of its linear media mean that we are now at a turning point for our great broadcasting institutions, some of which, at least, will not survive the next decade.

Everything about British broadcasting at the moment points to too much television relying on the unsustainable business model of the 30-second ad slot. When you can watch 24 hours of 24 on back-to-back DVDs or just a minute of it on your mobile phone, the role of a traditional television station becomes uncertain.

Read the article: www.media.guardian.co.uk